The world’s citizens are waking up to the realization that the Coronavirus- SARS Covid-19, isn’t going to magically go away. This is disappointing because so many twilight moderns have become true believers in the dark arts like their slovenly, flea-ridden ancestors in medieval Europe. Prior to the printing press and three-masted sailing ships there was superstition; faith healers, priests and witches. These became obsolete, but not all at once; we (re)learned perspective then close observation, to learn how to see; to understand the nature of reality and then, enlightenment, (literally) ‘let there be light’. Afterward came a revival of classical philosophy and art, of materialism, then (a bastardized) ‘practical’ philosophy of materialism, the quasi-historical dialectic between materialism vs blind faith; then mechanics followed by engineering and now, full circle back to magic as engineering has revealed itself as a kind of schtickish shiny object offering the world little but overpopulation, Facebook and utopian lies. Ethics and honor are blasted hulks, replaced by ‘Realpolitik’ and cynicism; economics offers the ideological-numerological armature of society gone to rot, a kind of rationalizing astrology combined with public relations:

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The number of coronavirus cases continues to grow globally, with two of the highest tallies in the history of the pandemic recorded this week, driven by outbreaks in Latin America, Africa, South Asia and the United States, which still posts some of the highest counts of new cases.

— New York Times

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Carlos Machado, a senior scientist with Brazil’s prestigious Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, wanted the language to be strong. At the request of Rio officials, his team was assembling a list of recommendations. He needed to make clear what would happen if they didn’t immediately impose a complete lockdown.

“It would result,” the team warned in the early May report, “in a human catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.”

— Washington Post

A human catastrophe of unimaginable proportions is underway … and an understatement. Are we getting what we deserve? A: Probably. At the very least, we get to hold Mother Nature’s beer while she kicks the crap out of us: Brazil is one of a number of impoverished, poorly managed countries including India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Bangladesh. These are places lacking basic services; electricity, adequate supplies of clean water or sanitation for billions and little in the way of safe housing for people to ‘social distance’ themselves to. Even in best of times — which these are not — employment for millions is irregular and exploitive. Workplaces are unregulated enterprises offering slave wages requiring constant worker attention. Public spaces and transit are overcrowded. Medical services are limited to those who can afford fees. For the rest, care is sparse to non-existent: occasional clinics, faith healers and mystics. The choice many of the world’s workers face is stark: to scratch a desperate living in unsafe conditions, to risk infection and death, or to starve.

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This chart is not scientific or a prediction, it indicates one set of potential outcomes among many. It is likely the case totals and deaths in most countries will be much higher. Assessment is based largely upon number of residents, economic pressures and the establishment habit of framing the epidemic as a kind of economic crisis.

Ten countries are ranked by population, together they are home to 4.5 billion people. Seven of the ten have large slum populations (@ 23 percent). The time range runs from the beginning of the epidemic in 2023 to the point where total case numbers are reduced by herd immunity which is conservatively assumed to be ~30%. Guidance is the great 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’ epidemic that infected about 30 percent of the world population before fading.

Herd immunity is a measurement of the efficiency of disease transmission. Corona and other epidemic viruses require continuous, unbroken access to new human hosts within a specific time frame to survive. Immunity for a group (herd) occurs when a sufficient number of the group develop disease resistance and cannot be reinfected, or else they die, breaking the chain of transmission. This effectively immunizes the entire group as there are too few unexposed individuals – relative to the total – for the disease to propagate. Herd immunity is conventionally understood to occur when 70-90 percent of total vulnerable population has survived infection or have been vaccinated.

The 70-90 percent figure assumes that social- and business interactions leading to disease transmission are evenly distributed. Because interactions tend to be specific to places and groups, because resources are likewise concentrated, because transmission is time sensitive; for all these reasons the distribution of available hosts is uneven. Some places will see the higher percentage of infections (immunity overshoot) while areas and groups might see 20 percent infections or fewer (effective herd immunity).

At un-adjusted 30 percent for these ten countries, their population of 4.5 billion X .30 would mean 1.35 billion infections. Of this group 3 percent would die: 1.35 billion X .03 = 40.5 million deaths. 3 percent fatality rate is assumed due the compounding effect of poverty, 请教大家怎样从国外翻回国内 QAQ - V2EX:2021-9-4 · 请教大家怎样从国外翻回国内 QAQ merlinX · 2021-09-04 21:16:03 +08:00 · 22204 次点击 这是一个创建于 1012 天前的主题，其中的信息可能已经有所发展或是发生改变。 and generally impaired health of individuals leading up to the epidemic.

If herd immunity is 70 percent for these countries, their population 4.5 billion X .70 would equal 3.15 billion infections with that number X 3 percent mortality = 94+ million deaths.

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In 1918, herd immunity was 30 percent of a world population of 1.8 billion equaled about 600 million infections, of that number as many as 100 million died. Extrapolated to current population X 4 would equal 2.4 billion infections worldwide and nearly a half-billion deaths. A human catastrophe of unimaginable proportions, indeed!

Herd immunity is important because it is at present the only way the virus infections can be reduced to a level where ordinary day-to-day activities can resume. There are no drug treatment alternatives. It is possible, the virus might over time mutate and become less lethal or infectious. Immunization is simply artificially induced herd immunity. So are isolation strategies or quarantines; these are effective but only if they are targeted by way of testing and universal. ‘Lockdowns’ are effective but only if they are of long enough duration for the disease to ‘burn itself out’ by denying the virus access to new hosts.

Governments have generally been unable to respond effectively to the epidemic. Managers tend to concern themselves with the economic well-being of themselves and favored elites while offering non-elites table scraps and/or the knout. The virus confronts managers with a kind of challenge governments are not designed to manage. Success against the virus requires attention being paid to the most vulnerable. The countries that have quashed the outbreak include Vietnam, Taiwan, New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore. These governments haven’t filtered for wealth but for infections. These governments also took rapid and decisive action against the virus threat. China’s response was not particularly rapid but has turned out to be effective. This is less to do with Beijing’s iron-fisted government and social controls, more with a robust public health establishment and a long and painful history of epidemics. In any event, the cost of managing the virus in China — both in money and prestige — has been extreme:

The cost to China output during first 3 months of 2023 is 9.3% of GDP, the first negative output since the opening of the country in the 1970s. China’s trade partners are seeing similar drops in output. (Chart by Trading Economics)

… so extreme that ‘managing’ Corona for another year or so will bankrupt the country, leaving its billion and a half inhabitants with no better defenses than Brazil.

A Chinese material advantage is the replacement of millions slum housing units with new apartments and more-or-less universal access to clean water. This matters, but as the experience of the US indicates, these things by themselves are not sufficient to be proof against the disease. As China’s trade partners endure their own economic crises the ability of Beijing to meet Covid-related costs will deteriorate and outbreaks there seem 在国内怎么翻国外app to become more severe over time until herd immunity is achieved.

The American Covid strategy can be boiled down to a cynical and largely economic approach: the elderly, immigrants, blacks, low-wage gig economy workers, prisoners and other chum are cast into the fire so as to gain herd immunity for those left over … and having the Federal Reserve buy bonds.

The outcome of this non-strategy is the world’s highest national tally of cases and the highest death toll, this in the country with the highest GDP, the greatest wealth by assets, the most advanced medical services (and most costly). It did not have to be this way: Chinese authorities restricted travel to-and-from Wuhan city on the 23d of January. That action by itself irrespective of any noise from the Chinese government should have highlighted the danger. Governments don’t isolate cities or entire regions from the rest of a country unless there is a damned good reason. Washington had only to impose a 14-day quarantine on travelers entering the US and treat those infected … That’s it! The virus would have been isolated in ports of entry and hospitals. The massive and growing case tally, the deaths, the economic damage would have been minimized. But, management needed to act quickly, that was their job … instead, nothing was done for months. There were lies and posturing, distractions for unaware Americans, followed by confusion and shortages of basic items such as face masks.

In a way, none of this is surprising. Administrative dawdling is of a piece with post-Soviet pseudo-libertarian economic dogma: that governments don’t actually need to manage anything, that they must avoid interference in private business; that there is a market for everything including death, that economic forces and laissez faire will sort things out. All this even though the entire rationale is demonstrably false, that externalities and distribution effects are ignored, that costs are costs whether they are the product of managing the disease or the disease itself. Meanwhile, behind the froth and splatter our so-called free markets are quietly nationalized. After all, our poor quadrillionaires need the money!

What we've been missing, below the surface, about 快帆翻国外加速软件. The focus has been on confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths. But there's so much more we've been learning. United States data here pic.twitter.com/UrUisLNvIC

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) June 14, 2023

The framing of the virus has been a construct of economic assumptions and modeling lifted from analysis of money and credit flows within finance. The virus is seen as a kind of ‘money man problem’, a contest between self-interested, rational actors on the road to equilibrium. A denial strategy is to treat unpleasant facts as opinions and assertions and to offer unsubstantiated contrary opinions and assertions. One set of opinions cancels out the others; in the meantime interests making the contrary assertions continue business as usual — getting bailouts — while the various arguments recede into the 24 hour media cycle.

The DC establishment follows the denial strategy exactly. Who can argue and for what? After all, everyone is entitled to an opinion, one is as good as the other, right? The course of illness is shoehorned into the conventional credit cycle narrative: there is a beginning, middle then … happily ever after. There is the run up (blame), the actual (brief) moment of panic then recovery. Within the narrative, markets have ‘priced in’ the virus-related economic costs already and now is time ‘buy the dip’. Our half-hearted gesture toward isolation was simply theater; it was far too brief and with too many exceptions to have a positive longer term effect. Our fortitude fell apart under the weight of boredom. Bottom line is the bottom line: we’ve decided without actually deciding anything to take our beating, throw caution to the wind and get on with things, consequences be damned.

After all, a dollar is a dollar and to that end we all must do God’s dirty work or it will never get done, we’ll never get rich, we’ll never get that new car or the trip to Disney World; goodbye, Grandma, we don’t care.